ZEWAYINTELLIGENCE BY THE RUNNING LIGHT
AS OF 28 SEP
How many tankers switched their AIS off in the Gulf last night, against everyone else.THE BOARD

ZEWAY › DARKCON

DARKCON · the Gulf tanker dark index

DARKCON is the share of screened Gulf tankers that stopped broadcasting AIS in the last 24 hours, divided by the share of other ships that did the same on the identical test, read as a level from 1 to 5. Tonight it is 2 of 5, Shadow Tide: 87 of 246 screened tankers went dark, 1.8× the background rate, as read 28 SEP 1243Z.

The level tonight

One dot per tanker; a dark dot stopped transmitting for 3 to 24 hours.
DARKCON · THE LEVELAIS READ 28 SEP 1243Z

2OF 5

SHADOW TIDE

More tankers than usual sailed without lights last night — 1.8 times the rate for other ships in the same water. That is the pattern before a Hormuz run, a hidden cargo, or a hit.

WENT DARK, 24H87OF 246
VS BACKGROUND1.8×20% AMBIENT
7-DAY AVERAGE59▲ ABOVE
5ALL LIGHTS BURNING
4A FEW GO QUIET
3RUNNING DARK
2SHADOW TIDE
1BLACKOUT

1 IS THE WORST · 5 THE CALMEST

1.0×1.2×1.4×1.8×22 SEP · DARKCON 2 SHADOW TIDE · 65 OF 209 WENT DARK · 1.52× BACKGROUND · AS SHIPPED OR SAVED BY THE DESK28 SEP · DARKCON 2 SHADOW TIDE · 87 OF 246 WENT DARK · 1.75× BACKGROUND · AS SHIPPED OR SAVED BY THE DESK22 SEP · Iran offers to reopen Hormuz within seven days in a push for diplomacy — unverified, single-source · LPG tanker hit by debris from unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, two crew injured · Kallas urges the EU to bolster its Red Sea mission against the Houthi threat · Saudi East-West crude pipeline to Yanbu back online, per trade sources; no ministry statement21 SEP · Two tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz within hours, two seafarers injured · Houthis push to cut off the Red Sea coast after Trump calls off strikes on the group · Six VLCCs load nearly 12 million barrels at Ras Tanura and Ju’aymah in one day, the busiest at the complex since before the war; four entered the Gulf in ballast 15–17 Sep, and 25 of 26 inbound ballast crude-tanker crossings 12–20 Sep showed no destination. Six dark events at Sohar, Fujairah, Basrah and Ras Tanura preceded the surge · Caspian coaster rates keep climbing on Russian grain to Iran; the Azov market stays shut, with no exit into the Black Sea · Russia cuts the wheat export duty to 725.7 RUB/t and corn to 158.4 for 23–29 Sep, from 1,146.3 and 617.5; barley stays at zero28 SEP · TCP opens its 185,000 t wheat bids: 13 received, 12 responsive, Bunge lowest at $339.36 CFR Karachi and $340.36 Gwadar, Aston top at $354.83; the 16 Sep award was $348.83, so the C&F fell $9.47/t in twelve days; award pending, grievances to 1800 on 29 Sep · Kyiv sees no positive sign of a ceasefire covering grain or the Black Sea: every proposal from partners rejected by Moscow, no direct contact, every round of talks tried and none expected to work in the coming months, says agriculture minister Vysotskyi in Brussels · Ukraine asks its partners for stronger export support and an extraordinary FAO session: port strikes put more than 30 million tonnes of this season’s agricultural exports at risk and producer losses above $10bn, with storage, working capital and the 2027–28 plantings under pressure · Russia could restore up to 80% of its Black Sea and Azov grain terminal capacity quickly if the mutual strikes stop; politicians on both sides say a Grain Deal 2.0 is not on the agenda · Uzbekistan took more than 71,000 t of Russian wheat in eight months, sixteen times a year ago, with a record 65,000 t in August: port disruption is pushing Russian exporters to rail and to Central Asia despite Kazakh transit tariffs · Iran finishes laying the 730 km Chabahar–Zahedan line, Afghanistan’s shortest route to the ocean and a port outside Hormuz; operations from early 202716 SEP · JWC circular JWLA-035 lists the whole Black Sea outside Romanian, Bulgarian, Turkish and Georgian territorial waters; the extra cost ex CVB is put at $3–5k a voyage for coasters and $20–40k for supra to panamax06 SEP05 OCT

THIRTY NIGHTS · ONE BAR A NIGHT, LEVEL BY COLOUR, THE LOG’S EVENTS PINNED ABOVE THEIR NIGHT · 2 NIGHTS ON RECORD · THIS BROWSER KEEPS EACH NIGHT IT READS

THE LIGHT BOARD · ONE DOT PER TANKER246 SCREENED · 87 UNLIT

Every dot is a tanker that was broadcasting inside the Gulf watch box. A dark dot stopped transmitting for 3 to 24 hours. Identities sit behind a paid feed; this board shows the count, not the names. The two counts below are every AIS-visible hull in the watch box, not tankers alone; straits.live reset its AIS basis on 26 SEP, when fixes older than an hour stopped counting, so the holding count stepped down by method that day.

SHIPS HOLDING OFFSHORE229ALL TYPES, AWAY FROM PORT · 28 SEP 1249Z
RISK-FLAGGED HULLS IN THE GULF237113 HIGH · OF 1,985 HULLS ON AIS

Every night on record

The nights the desk bound the page on, and the live history when it was reached.
NightWent dark, of screenedBackground rateRatioLevel
28 September 202687 of 24620%1.75×2 · Shadow Tide
22 September 202665 of 20920%1.52×2 · Shadow Tide

The same numbers for machines: darkcon.json, and the live series at /api/darkcon.

The five levels

Read like DEFCON: 1 is the worst, 5 the calmest.
1BlackoutTankers are going dark at almost twice the background rate. Expect runs, seizures or strikes to follow.ratio ≥ 1.8×
2Shadow TideMore tankers than usual sailed without lights last night — N times the rate for other ships in the same water. That is the pattern before a Hormuz run, a hidden cargo, or a hit.ratio ≥ 1.4×
3Running DarkTankers are switching off a little more than everyone else. Something is being staged.ratio ≥ 1.2×
4A Few Go QuietDark rate barely above background. Ordinary dropout explains most of it.ratio ≥ 1.0×
5All Lights BurningTankers are transmitting like everyone else. Nothing is hiding tonight.below 1.0×

How the number is made

DARKCON is the share of screened Gulf tankers that stopped broadcasting AIS in the last 24 hours, divided by the share of other ships that did the same on the identical test, so ordinary reception dropout cancels out. What's left is ships choosing to go dark. Five levels, read like DEFCON: 1 is BLACKOUT, the worst; 5 is ALL LIGHTS BURNING. The light board beside it shows the count, one dot per tanker, never the names. The strip under the ladder is the last thirty nights, one bar each, the log's events pinned above the night they happened; this browser keeps every night it reads, and the desk notebook can backfill the rest. THE CARD button draws the number as a 1200×630 picture for the channel, shared where the browser has a share sheet and downloaded everywhere else; the same picture, saved as og.png beside the page, is what a shared link previews. DARKCON.JSON is the same numbers for machines.

DARKCON reads straits.live's AIS watch box; the ratio and the level are ZEWAY's. Numbers bound 28 SEP 2026; the typed blocks were last edited 28 SEP 1930Z. The live board refreshes its feeds every half hour while open; this page is rewritten at every bind.