The chokepoints

Remarks, as typed: IRGC PASSAGE BAN SINCE 28 FEB · PORTWATCH 20 SEP: ONE TRANSIT; CENTCOM CLAIMS ~60 CROSSINGS ON 24 SEP, REUTERS COUNTED NINE · PETROLINE OFF SINCE THE 11 SEP STRIKES, A LOW-RATE RESTART REPORTED 22 SEP IS UNCONFIRMED AND NO YANBU CARGO HAS LOADED; HABSHAN–FUJAIRAH IS THE ONE BYPASS RUNNING, 1.5M BPD · SIX VLCCS LOADED ~12M BBL AT RAS TANURA AND JU’AYMAH 21 SEP, THE BUSIEST DAY SINCE BEFORE THE WAR; FOUR CAME IN BALLAST 15–17 SEP, AND 25 OF 26 INBOUND BALLASTERS 12–20 SEP SHOWED NO DESTINATION (KPLER) · TWO TANKERS HIT 21 SEP · ARAGHCHI’S SEVEN-DAY REOPENING PLAN OF 25 SEP REJECTED BY WASHINGTON, PER NBC 28 SEP · POLYMARKET ODDS OF NORMAL TRAFFIC BY 31 DEC 24%

Remarks, as typed: HOUTHIS HOLD PERIM ISLAND AND THE YEMENI RED SEA COAST · SAUDI-LINKED HULLS TARGETED · PORTWATCH COUNT STILL NEAR NORMAL, WHICH IS WHY THE STATUS IS SET BY HAND · NORMAL IS THE FEB 2025–FEB 2026 MEDIAN, A YEAR THAT ALREADY CARRIED THE RED SEA DIVERSION, SO LOAD FLATTERS

Remarks, as typed: CANAL OPEN AND TOLLS UNCHANGED · TRAFFIC DOWN WITH THE RED SEA · THE DETOUR IS THE CAPE, AND MOST ASIA-EUROPE LOOPS ARE ALREADY ON IT · NORMAL IS THE FEB 2025–FEB 2026 MEDIAN, A YEAR THAT ALREADY CARRIED THE RED SEA DIVERSION, SO LOAD FLATTERS

Remarks, as typed: BOSPHORUS AND DARDANELLES, THE ONLY WAY OUT OF THE BLACK SEA · MONTREUX INVOKED FEB 2022, BELLIGERENT WARSHIPS BARRED · THE COUNT IS PORTWATCH’S OWN BOSPORUS ROW, READ DIRECT WHEN THE FEED ANSWERS; DASHES MEAN IT DID NOT

Remarks, as typed: CARRYING THE ASIA-EUROPE AND GULF-ATLANTIC DIVERSIONS · ADDS 10 TO 14 DAYS AGAINST SUEZ · BUNKER, NOT RISK, IS THE COST HERE · NORMAL IS THE FEB 2025–FEB 2026 MEDIAN, A YEAR THAT ALREADY CARRIED THE RED SEA DIVERSION, SO LOAD FLATTERS

Remarks, as typed: NORMAL · DETOUR VIA LOMBOK OR SUNDA IF NEEDED · GULF-BOUND VLCCS IN BALLAST ARE THE ONES TO WATCH

Remarks, as typed: THE COUNT IS PORTWATCH’S OWN PANAMA ROW, READ DIRECT WHEN THE FEED ANSWERS; DASHES MEAN IT DID NOT · DETOUR VIA MAGELLAN OR CAPE HORN

Each chokepoint is a flight. SHIPS is how many crossed on the latest published day, NORMAL the median of the year before Hormuz shut, February 2025 to February 2026, LOAD one against the other. For Suez, Bab el-Mandeb and the Cape that year already carried the Red Sea diversion, so their LOAD reads high and their remarks say so. DETOUR is what avoiding the chokepoint costs in days. WAR RISK is the hull premium as a multiple of the pre-war rate, where one is quoted. The status flap is set by the count; Bab el-Mandeb is set by hand while ships are being hit. Remarks scroll; hover to hold one. WHO NEEDS IT, under each row, is the trades that depend on that gate, so a flap change reads straight into a market. Under that, the last fourteen published days as bars against NORMAL, and the day the flap last changed. The Turkish Straits row reads PortWatch's own Bosporus count directly, its NORMAL the median of the same pre-crisis year the other rows use.