ZEWAY › The 0600Z brief › 28 September 2026
The 0600Z brief · 28 September 2026
Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Black Sea on one sheet for 28 September 2026: the level, the gates and who needs them, the tape, the desk's read and its score, the wire, the coaster board, the grain afloat, the tenders, the odds and the log. Every line carries its own date; nothing here is advice. Every brief, by date.
ZEWAY · THE 0600Z BRIEF
SHEET MADE 05 OCT 1559Z · SEAL AS OF 28 SEP · EVERY LINE CARRIES ITS OWN DATE · NOTHING HERE IS ADVICE
DARKCON 2 OF 5 · SHADOW TIDE
More tankers than usual sailed without lights last night — 1.8 times the rate for other ships in the same water. That is the pattern before a Hormuz run, a hidden cargo, or a hit.
WENT DARK 24H 87 OF 246 · 1.8× BACKGROUND, 20% AMBIENT · 7-DAY AVERAGE 59 · AIS READ 28 SEP 1243Z
SHIPS HOLDING OFFSHORE, ALL TYPES 229, 28 SEP 1249Z · RISK-FLAGGED HULLS 237, 113 HIGH, OF 1,985 ON AIS
THE MOVES
ALGERIA · $289.50 05 AUG → $320.00 15 SEP · +$30.50/T IN 41 DAYS
PAKISTAN · $348.83 16 SEP → $339.36 28 SEP (LOWEST BID) · −$9.47/T IN 12 DAYS
THE CHOKEPOINTS · PORTWATCH 20 SEP
| HORMUZ | CLOSED | 1 / 85 · 1% | 1 PIPE LEFT · WAR RISK 40× | VLCC · LNG · LPG · NAPHTHA |
| BAB EL-MANDEB | RESTRICTED | 26 / 34 · 76% | +12 DAYS · WAR RISK TARGETED | ASIA–EUROPE BOXES · SUEZMAX · BLACK SEA GRAIN TO ASIA |
| SUEZ CANAL | OPEN | 42 / 39 · 108% | +10-14 DAYS | ASIA–EUROPE BOXES · SUEZMAX · BLACK SEA GRAIN TO THE RED SEA AND ASIA |
| TURKISH STRAITS | NO FEED | — | NO DETOUR | EVERYTHING BLACK SEA · GRAIN, CPC AND NOVO CRUDE, STEEL, COASTERS |
| CAPE OF GOOD HOPE | OPEN | 85 / 88 · 97% | THE DETOUR | WHATEVER SUEZ AND BAB EL-MANDEB TURN AWAY · ASIA–EUROPE AND GULF–ATLANTIC DIVERSIONS |
| MALACCA | OPEN | 230 / 237 · 97% | +2 DAYS | VLCC AND LNG TO NORTH-EAST ASIA · BOXES |
| PANAMA CANAL | NO FEED | — | +10 DAYS | US GULF LPG · BOXES |
THE TAPE
| BRENT | $106.11 | +1.7% 24H | 28 SEP |
| HORMUZ WAR RISK | 40× | PRE-WAR | STRAITS EST. |
| VLCC | $451,000/D | +68% W/W · RECORD | 16 SEP |
| SUEZMAX | $343,000/D | +94% W/W · RECORD | 16 SEP |
| BDI | 3,336 | +0.3% | 17 SEP |
| CAPESIZE | 5,656 | +0.8% | 17 SEP |
| PANAMAX | 2,282 | −1.8% | 17 SEP |
| SUPRAMAX | 1,762 | +0.8% | 17 SEP |
| GLOBAL CFI | +$0.50/T | W/W | 21 SEP |
| BLACK SEA CFI | +$0.62/T | W/W | 21 SEP |
| MED CFI | +$0.89/T | W/W | 21 SEP |
| GULF OF FINLAND CFI | +$1.34/T | W/W | 21 SEP |
| CVB–MED 10K TCE | $4,290/D | +$290 | 21 SEP |
| UKRAINE (POC)–MED 10K TCE | $14,400/D | −$190 | 21 SEP |
| CVB–MED 10K RV | $1,860/D | −$40 | 25 SEP |
| DANUBE/POC–EMED 5K RV | $6,850/D | −$470 | 25 SEP |
| WHEAT CONSTANTA → ADRIATIC | $30/T | +$1.5 | 21 SEP |
| WHEAT ODESA / CHORNOMORSK → ALEXANDRIA | $124/T | UNCH | 21 SEP |
| WHEAT RENI / IZMAIL → ADRIATIC | $115/T | UNCH | 21 SEP |
| BILLETS NOVOROSSIYSK → MARMARA | $76/T | UNCH | 21 SEP |
| WHEAT ODESA / CHORNOMORSK → ALEXANDRIA 25–30K T | $97/T | +$10 | 25 SEP |
| WHEAT NOVOROSSIYSK → ALEXANDRIA 25–30K T | $110/T | +$7 | 25 SEP |
| WHEAT CONSTANTA / VARNA → ALEXANDRIA 25–30K T | $23/T | +$2.5 | 25 SEP |
| GRAIN AFLOAT EX BLSEA | 4.93 MT | ▼ −16.8% W/W | WK 37 |
| IZMAIL–LEBANON | $99/T | FIXED | 21 SEP |
| IZMAIL / RENI–EGYPTMED | $105–110/T | FIXED | 21 SEP |
| TENDER · JORDAN 60K T WHEAT | $332 C&F | TO AQABA | 22 SEP |
| TENDER · PAKISTAN 365K T WHEAT | $348.83 CFR | TO KARACHI / GWADAR | 16 SEP |
THE DESK · 25 SEP · TANKERS FIRM · DRY BULK STEADY
| AFRAMAX · CROSS-MED TD19 CEYHAN–MED | FIRM ▲ | Med tonnage pulled east by the Gulf earnings; Ceyhan and Sidi Kerir stems bid up. |
| SUEZMAX · BLACK SEA–MED TD6 CPC–AUGUSTA | FIRM ▲ | CPC liftings steady; ballasters leaving for the Gulf thin the Med list. |
| MR · MED PRODUCTS TC6 SKIKDA–EUROMED | STEADY → | Cross-Med steady; Bab el-Mandeb targeting keeps the LRs out of the basin. |
| COASTERS · CVB, THE NON-PREMIUM BLACK SEA 25 SEP · 10,000 DWCC MINIBULKER RV EARNS $1,860/D, −40 | STEADY → | Round-voyage earnings ex CVB slipped $10–40 a day at every size: $1,860 for a 10,000 DWCC minibulker, $1,070 for a 5,000 seagoing, $860 for a 3,000. Last week's $0.5–1.5/t only covered the bunkers, and this week gave a little of it back. Bigger stems ex Constanta and Varna print +$1–4.5/t, the smallest rise in the basin. Owners are not making money yet. |
| COASTERS · UKRAINE, DANUBE AND POC 25 SEP · 5,000 DWCC RV EARNS $6,850/D, −470 | SOFT ▼ | The Danube and POC round voyage gave back $470 a day on the week, and the delivery-TBS chart has the 10,000 and 5,000 DWCC earnings off their week-38 peaks; that table prints next. $100–120k of war-risk cover and crew bonus and 10–20 days of waiting still sit inside the earning. The bigger stems tell the other story: 25–30k t of wheat Odesa to Alexandria is $97/t, +10, four times Constanta. |
| COASTERS · MEDITERRANEAN 25 SEP · MARMARA → MED 5,000 DWCC RV EARNS $1,630/D, +350 | FIRM ▲ | The Med round voyages carried the week: Marmara to the Med +$350 a day at 5,000 DWCC and +$230 at 3,000, Iberia to North Africa +$250 to $1,970. Fewer open ships and more stems, and bunkers are still the owners' argument. |
| HANDY TO SUPRAMAX · BLACK SEA GRAIN 25 SEP · 25–30K T WHEAT ODESA → ALEXANDRIA $97/T, +10 | FIRM ▲ | Every Black Sea and Med lane printed higher on the week, +$7–11/t ex Ukraine and Russia and +$1–4.5/t ex Constanta and Varna, while the Atlantic, Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean assessments were unchanged. The war-risk listing is being paid: Odesa to Alexandria $97/t and Novorossiysk $110/t against Constanta's $23. Grain afloat is still 44% below the June peak, so this is risk and tonnage, not volume. |
THE SCORECARD HIT RATE 75%, 3 OF 4 GRADED · 7 CALLS OPEN FROM 25 SEP
THE FIXTURE WIRE
| 21 SEP | FIXED | IZMAIL → LEBANON · — · COASTER | $99/T | COASTER FREIGHT INDEX · DESK PIN |
| 21 SEP | FIXED | IZMAIL / RENI → EGYPTMED · — · COASTER · DONE MID-WEEK | $105–110/T | COASTER FREIGHT INDEX · DESK PIN |
| 21 SEP | BID | IZMAIL / RENI → EGYPTMED · — · COASTER · CHARTERERS' BIDS AFTER THE $105–110 DONE | $92–97/T | COASTER FREIGHT INDEX · DESK PIN |
THE COASTER BOARD · TBS CFI 21 SEP, WEEK 38 · ROUND VOYAGE 25 SEP, WEEK 39
| CVB → MARMARA / MED SEAGOING · 5,000 DWCC | $2,450/D | ▲ +170 | TBS 21 SEP |
| CVB → MARMARA / MED SEAGOING · 10,000 DWCC | $4,290/D | ▲ +290 | TBS 21 SEP |
| UKRAINE (POC) → MARMARA / MED SEAGOING · 5,000 DWCC | $9,970/D | ▲ +130 | TBS 21 SEP |
| UKRAINE (POC) → MARMARA / MED SEAGOING · 10,000 DWCC | $14,400/D | ▼ −190 | TBS 21 SEP |
| CVB → MED RV MINIBULKER · 10,000 DWCC | $1,860/D | ▼ −40 | RV 25 SEP |
| CVB → MARMARA / EMED RV SEAGOING · 5,000 DWCC | $1,070/D | ▼ −20 | RV 25 SEP |
| DANUBE / POC → MARMARA / EMED RV SEAGOING · 5,000 DWCC | $6,850/D | ▼ −470 | RV 25 SEP |
| MARMARA → MED RV SEAGOING · 5,000 DWCC | $1,630/D | ▲ +350 | RV 25 SEP |
| INTER-WMED RV · IBERIA – N. AFRICA SEAGOING · 5,000 DWCC | $1,970/D | ▲ +250 | RV 25 SEP |
| GULF OF FINLAND → UK / IRELAND COASTER · 5,000 DWCC | $3,370/D | ▲ +120 | RV 25 SEP |
OPEN 2–12K DWT · BLACK SEA 39 (▼ −13 W/W) · WHOLE BASIN 232 (▼ −49) · CARGO OFFERS 1,024
THE DANUBE LANES AT THE INDEX’S 15 DAYS’ WAIT · 10K COASTER, HOUSE MODEL · IZMAIL → ADRIATIC $14,117/D · IZMAIL → EGYPTMED $13,581/D · IZMAIL → LEBANON $11,541/D · EACH DAY OFF THE WAIT IS WORTH ABOUT $569/D · ASSUMPTIONS TYPED 24 SEP, BUNKERS GO SHIPPING 2 SEP
HANDY TO SUPRAMAX · 25 SEP · WEEK 39
| WHEAT · ODESA / CHORNOMORSK → ALEXANDRIA 25–30K T · 7000X / 5000X | $97/T | ▲ +$10 |
| WHEAT · NOVOROSSIYSK → ALEXANDRIA 25–30K T · 8000X / 5000X | $110/T | ▲ +$7 |
| WHEAT · CONSTANTA / VARNA → ALEXANDRIA 25–30K T · 8000X / 5000X | $23/T | ▲ +$2.5 |
| WHEAT · ODESA / CHORNOMORSK → MARMARA 25–30K T · 8000X / 4500X | $78/T | ▲ +$8 |
| WHEAT · CONSTANTA → JEDDAH 50–60K T · 10000X / 5000X · RED SEA VIA SUEZ | $45.5/T | ▲ +$1 |
| WHEAT · CONSTANTA → CIWANDAN / CIGADING 50–60K T · 10000X / 7000X · BEYOND BAB EL-MANDEB, OR THE CAPE | $49.5/T | ▲ +$1 |
| MAIZE · ODESA / CHORNOMORSK → BANDAR ABBAS 25–30K T · 7000X / 4500X · INSIDE HORMUZ, WHICH THE BOARD CALLS CLOSED | $154/T | ▲ +$9 |
| STEEL · NOVOROSSIYSK → ISKENDERUN 25–30K T · 6000C / 6000X | $110/T | ▲ +$7 |
| COAL · TAMAN → ISKENDERUN 25–30K T · 15000C / 6000C | $104/T | ▲ +$7 |
| UREA · NOVOROSSIYSK → SANTOS 25–30K T · 8000C / 6000C | $136/T | ▲ +$7 |
THE GRAIN AFLOAT · GRAINFLOW WEEK 37, 7–13 SEP
4.93 MT AT SEA ON 174 SHIPS · ▼ −16.8% W/W · 61% BOUND BEYOND SUEZ · SAILED WEEK 37 886K T ON 51 SHIPS · UKRAINE: NO DEEP-SEA SAILING LOGGED, ALL 83K T EX DANUBE · LAST DEEP-SEA DEPARTURE STILL AFLOAT LEFT PIVDENNYI 29 AUG
THE TENDER BOARD · TYPED 28 SEP
| 28 SEP | OPEN | PAKISTAN · TCP · WHEAT · 185K T · TURKISH STRAITS · SUEZ · BAB EL-MANDEB · TENDERED 21 SEP, 60K T LOTS · BIDS OPENED 28 SEP 1200: 13 RECEIVED, 12 RESPONSIVE · BUNGE LOWEST AT $339.36 CFR KARACHI, $340.36 CFR GWADAR · OLAM $341.88, AMEROPA $343.47, AGROCORP $343.74, CHS $345.00, MERA $346.19, LDC $346.50, FALCONBRIDGE $347.49, AL GHURAIR $349.00, SAIF $350.53, SOUFFLET $354.82, ASTON $354.83 · MERCURY OUT, SHORT OF EXPORT EXPERIENCE · GRIEVANCES TO 1800 ON 29 SEP · AWARD PENDING, TCP MAY REJECT |
| 22 SEP | AWARDED | JORDAN · MIT · HARD MILLING WHEAT · 60K T · $332 C&F · SHIP 01 NOV–15 NOV · TURKISH STRAITS · SUEZ · OTHER OFFERS $335.88 TO $342.93 |
| 16 SEP | AWARDED | PAKISTAN · TCP · WHEAT · 365K T · $348.83 CFR KARACHI · SHIP 11 OCT–31 OCT · ARRIVE 20 NOV · TURKISH STRAITS · SUEZ · BAB EL-MANDEB · 750K T SOUGHT · 656K T OF RESPONSIVE BIDS AT $348.83 TO $369.95 · 365K T REPORTED BOUGHT AT THE LOWEST |
| 15 SEP | AWARDED | ALGERIA · OAIC · MILLING WHEAT · 500–510K T · $319–321 C&F · SHIP 01 NOV–15 NOV · SHIP 16 NOV–30 NOV · TURKISH STRAITS · $30 OVER ITS 5 AUG TENDER |
| 8 SEP | NO AWARD | SAUDI ARABIA · GFSA · HARD WHEAT · 535K T · ARRIVE 01 NOV–15 DEC · TURKISH STRAITS · SUEZ · NOTHING BOUGHT, OFFERS TOO HIGH · $10/T PREMIUM IF SHIPS WERE REDIRECTED TO DAMMAM |
| 1 SEP | NOTE | TURKEY · TMO · WHEAT · TURKISH STRAITS · NO IMPORT TENDER · SELLING RESERVES FROM 1 SEP, 12.5% AT TRY 18,500/T, ABOUT $380 EXW · IMPORT PARITY PUT NEAR $295 CIF MARMARA |
THE ODDS · POLYMARKET
Hormuz traffic back to normal by 31 Dec? 24% · US announces end of the Iranian blockade by 31 Dec? 60% · A commercial ship hit or seized in the Gulf today? 31% · Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by 31 Dec? 18% · East-West pipeline officially restarts by 30 Sep? 29% · Houthis seize an oil tanker by 31 Oct? 27%
THE LOG · NEWEST FIRST
| 28 SEP | TCP opens its 185,000 t wheat bids: 13 received, 12 responsive, Bunge lowest at $339.36 CFR Karachi and $340.36 Gwadar, Aston top at $354.83; the 16 Sep award was $348.83, so the C&F fell $9.47/t in twelve days; award pending, grievances to 1800 on 29 Sep TCP EVALUATION REPORT, TCP.GOV.PK · DESK PIN |
| 28 SEP | Kyiv sees no positive sign of a ceasefire covering grain or the Black Sea: every proposal from partners rejected by Moscow, no direct contact, every round of talks tried and none expected to work in the coming months, says agriculture minister Vysotskyi in Brussels INTERVIEW VIA SINA FINANCE · DESK PIN |
| 28 SEP | Ukraine asks its partners for stronger export support and an extraordinary FAO session: port strikes put more than 30 million tonnes of this season’s agricultural exports at risk and producer losses above $10bn, with storage, working capital and the 2027–28 plantings under pressure MINISTRY OF AGRARIAN POLICY, AS READ 28 SEP · DESK PIN |
| 28 SEP | Russia could restore up to 80% of its Black Sea and Azov grain terminal capacity quickly if the mutual strikes stop; politicians on both sides say a Grain Deal 2.0 is not on the agenda AS REPORTED, READ 28 SEP · DESK PIN |
| 28 SEP | Uzbekistan took more than 71,000 t of Russian wheat in eight months, sixteen times a year ago, with a record 65,000 t in August: port disruption is pushing Russian exporters to rail and to Central Asia despite Kazakh transit tariffs STAT.UZ, AS READ 28 SEP · DESK PIN |
| 28 SEP | Iran finishes laying the 730 km Chabahar–Zahedan line, Afghanistan’s shortest route to the ocean and a port outside Hormuz; operations from early 2027 AS REPORTED, READ 28 SEP · DESK PIN |
| 22 SEP 1005Z | Saudi East-West crude pipeline to Yanbu back online, per trade sources; no ministry statement REUTERS |
ZEWAY · ZEWAY.AI · COUNTS: STRAITS.LIVE AIS WATCH BOX · TRANSITS: IMF PORTWATCH · FREIGHT: BALTIC EXCHANGE, CLARKSONS AND THE WEEKLY INDEX AND ASSESSMENTS, AS DATED · THE DESK'S READ, WIRE AND SCORECARD ARE TYPED BY HAND AND DATED · NOTHING HERE IS ADVICE