Hormuz, Red Sea and Black Sea shipping intelligence from a broking desk: the DARKCON Gulf tanker index, chokepoint status, freight rates, fixtures, grain afloat and grain tenders.
The indexDARKCON, the Gulf tanker dark index
How many tankers switched their AIS off last night against everyone else, and who owns the VLCC fleet.DARKCON 2, Shadow Tide · 87 of 246 went dark, 1.8× background2OF 5
SHADOW TIDE
More tankers than usual sailed without lights last night — 1.8 times the rate for other ships in the same water. That is the pattern before a Hormuz run, a hidden cargo, or a hit.
1 IS THE WORST · 5 THE CALMEST
THIRTY NIGHTS · ONE BAR A NIGHT, LEVEL BY COLOUR, THE LOG’S EVENTS PINNED ABOVE THEIR NIGHT · 2 NIGHTS ON RECORD · THIS BROWSER KEEPS EACH NIGHT IT READS
Every dot is a tanker that was broadcasting inside the Gulf watch box. A dark dot stopped transmitting for 3 to 24 hours. Identities sit behind a paid feed; this board shows the count, not the names. The two counts below are every AIS-visible hull in the watch box, not tankers alone; straits.live reset its AIS basis on 26 SEP, when fixes older than an hour stopped counting, so the holding count stepped down by method that day.
The chokepointsHormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez, the Turkish Straits, the Cape, Malacca, Panama
Which gates ships can use, what a detour costs in days, and who needs each.DRAG THE BOARD SIDEWAYS FOR EVERY COLUMN →
Is the Strait of Hormuz open? The full Hormuz page · All seven chokepoints, with their remarks in full
HOW TO READ THIS PAGE · FORTY SECONDS, ONCEOPEN
The number
DARKCON is the share of screened Gulf tankers that stopped broadcasting AIS in the last 24 hours, divided by the share of other ships that did the same on the identical test, so ordinary reception dropout cancels out. What's left is ships choosing to go dark. Five levels, read like DEFCON: 1 is BLACKOUT, the worst; 5 is ALL LIGHTS BURNING. The light board beside it shows the count, one dot per tanker, never the names. The strip under the ladder is the last thirty nights, one bar each, the log's events pinned above the night they happened; this browser keeps every night it reads, and the desk notebook can backfill the rest. THE CARD button draws the number as a 1200×630 picture for the channel, shared where the browser has a share sheet and downloaded everywhere else; the same picture, saved as og.png beside the page, is what a shared link previews. DARKCON.JSON is the same numbers for machines.The chokepoints
Each chokepoint is a flight. SHIPS is how many crossed on the latest published day, NORMAL the median of the year before Hormuz shut, February 2025 to February 2026, LOAD one against the other. For Suez, Bab el-Mandeb and the Cape that year already carried the Red Sea diversion, so their LOAD reads high and their remarks say so. DETOUR is what avoiding the chokepoint costs in days. WAR RISK is the hull premium as a multiple of the pre-war rate, where one is quoted. The status flap is set by the count; Bab el-Mandeb is set by hand while ships are being hit. Remarks scroll; hover to hold one. WHO NEEDS IT, under each row, is the trades that depend on that gate, so a flap change reads straight into a market. Under that, the last fourteen published days as bars against NORMAL, and the day the flap last changed. The Turkish Straits row reads PortWatch's own Bosporus count directly, its NORMAL the median of the same pre-crisis year the other rows use.The seal
LIVE and a time: your browser reached the feeds just now, and asks again every 30 minutes while the tab is open. AS OF 28 SEP: the numbers the page shipped with. FEED UNREACHED, in amber: no answer within nine seconds, so the last numbers stay and say so. The odds carry their own seal. Freight prints are dated one by one. THE 0600Z BRIEF is this page on one sheet, stamped with the time it was made: print it, or copy it as text for the channel. Nothing here is advice.The desk
The desk's blocks are typed by hand, not fed, and each carries the date it was written. THE MED & BLACK SEA is the desk's read by segment. THE COASTER BOARD is what small tonnage earns and what a tonne costs on the main routes: the delivery-TBS earnings, the coaster route prints and the open tonnage come from the Monday Coaster Freight Index, the round-voyage earnings and the HANDY TO SUPRAMAX prints from the Friday assessments, each block dated with its own print. TCE is the daily time-charter equivalent, DWCC the cargo a ship carries, CVB Constanta, Varna and Burgas, POC the Ukrainian deep-sea ports, TBS the Turkish Black Sea delivery basis, RV a round voyage with the way back empty. THE GRAIN AFLOAT counts every grain cargo that has left a Black Sea port and not yet arrived, from GrainFlow, which runs a week behind; the desk groups its declared destinations by the chokepoint each one needs. THE VALUES is what a 30,000-tonner is worth at ten and twenty years old, in US$ millions. THE FIXTURE WIRE is what was done, bid or failed, one line each, dated one by one: search any word on a line, and chart one route across every print. THE SCORECARD grades the desk's own calls against the next weekly print, hit or miss, and shows every miss. RATE THE STEM runs the house voyage model over any lane in the basin: pick the ports, the ship and the stem, type a freight and read the daily earning, or type the earning you need and read the freight, with the market's latest print on that lane beside it. Its amber line prices the Danube lanes at the index's fifteen days of waiting, so the wait reads as dollars a day. Ports marked ~ are the desk's estimates until confirmed, and every figure that uses one says so. The TANKER tab prices liquid stems from a 5,000-tonner to a Suezmax on the same table: vegoil, CPP, DPP, chemicals and UAN, in dollars a tonne, lumpsum or Worldscale, with hours in port, heating, cleaning and the ballast leg back; a Worldscale flat lives in the notebook and never prints. THE TENDER BOARD is what the state buyers bought, walked away from or still ask for, typed from the wires as reported: tonnes, C&F price, shipment window, discharge ports, and the gate a Black Sea cargo would need, with every window laid on a calendar. THE TAPE tab charts every C&F by date, one line per buyer. Under each priced line the board prints the implied freight, C&F less FOB: the desk's typed FOB where there is one, otherwise the index's indicative Russian wheat FOB, and it says which. Where the desk has named the nearest freight print, the line adds FOB plus that print and the gap the C&F leaves over it; where the house model prices the ship, the earning at the implied freight prints too. THE SEAL beside the clock is the desk's hit rate on the week's graded calls. The five tiles at the top are the page's answers, and everything beneath them is open on the page; a heading folds its section to one line, and this browser remembers which you folded. When you come back, an amber pill in the header counts what changed since your last visit and opens the list; that memory lives in this browser and nowhere else.The tapeTanker and dry bulk freight rates today
Brent, VLCC and Suezmax earnings, the Baltic dry indices and the war-risk multiple, each print dated.BRENT $106.11 +1.7% 24H · VLCC $451,000/D +68% W/W · BDI 3,336 +0.3% · SUPRAMAX 1,762 +0.8%BALTIC EXCHANGE · CLARKSONS · BRENT AND THE WAR-RISK MULTIPLE VIA STRAITS.LIVE · COASTER EARNINGS, COASTER AND HANDY TO SUPRAMAX PRINTS AND THE GRAIN AFLOAT, TYPED WEEKLY, AS DATED
The Med & Black SeaThe desk's read and the coaster freight board
Tankers, dry bulk and coasters in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, the values, and the scorecard.Tankers firm, dry bulk steady, read 25 SEP · score 3 of 4 gradedUKRAINIAN PORTS PAY 3.4× CVB AT 10,000 DWCC, BASIS TBS 21 SEP · $100–120K EWRI AND CREW BONUS AND 10–20 DAYS OF WAITING PRICED IN · ON 25–30K T OF WHEAT TO ALEXANDRIA, 25 SEP, ODESA PAYS 4.2× AND NOVOROSSIYSK 4.8× CONSTANTA
BROKERS' WEEKLY S&P REPORTS AS RECEIVED BY THE DESK · VALUES IN US$ MILLIONS · CHANGE AGAINST LAST MONTH
THE RULE · A CALL IS UP, DOWN OR FLAT, WRITTEN ON THE DESK READ DATE. IT IS GRADED WHEN THE NEXT WEEKLY REFERENCE LANDS: A HIT WHEN THE PRINT MOVED THE WAY THE DESK SAID, FLAT A HIT WHEN IT STAYED INSIDE THE DESK'S OWN BAND. THE DESK TYPES THE OUTCOME; THE PAGE DOES THE ARITHMETIC AND SHOWS EVERY MISS.
THE DRY BULK AND COASTER ROWS WERE RE-READ ON THE 25 SEP PRINTS AND THE 23 SEP CALLS GRADED ON THE SCORECARD · THE TANKER ROWS ARE CARRIED FROM THE 23 SEP READ, UNCHANGED AND UNGRADED: NO TANKER REFERENCE HAS LANDED SINCE. ADDED 28 SEP, ON THE UKRAINE, DANUBE AND POC ROW: KYIV SEES NO SIGN OF A BLACK SEA CEASEFIRE AND THE MINISTRY PUTS 30 MILLION TONNES OF THIS SEASON’S EXPORTS AT RISK FROM PORT STRIKES, SO THE WAR-RISK COVER AND THE WAITING STAY INSIDE THE EARNING AND THE ODESA PREMIUM OVER CONSTANTA HOLDS; THE SOFT CALL STANDS UNTIL THE NEXT PRINT.
Black Sea and Med freight rates on their own page, every print dated
Rate the stemA Black Sea and Med voyage estimate
The house model over any lane in the basin: pick the ports, the ship and the stem, and read the earning or the freight.5k coaster and 10k coaster priced · dry cargo and tanker tabs · assumptions typed 24 SEP14.5 DAYS · SEA 4.5 · PORT 8.0 · WAITING 1.0 · MARGIN 1.0 · 1,178 NM
GROSS $180,000 · COMM 3.75% $6,750 · BUNKERS $78,267 · DAS $24,000 · DUES $4,500 · WAR RISK $4,000 · NET $62,483
THE MARKET SAYS $30.0/T · CFI 21 SEP, WHEAT 5–6K T · WORTH $4,320/DAY ON THIS STEM
EACH $1/T OF FREIGHT IS WORTH $399/DAY · EACH DAY OF WAITING COSTS $391/DAY · MGO +$100/T COSTS $376/DAY
DISTANCES AND DAS FOR CONSTANTA ARE THE DESK’S ESTIMATES, UNVERIFIED (~)
THE DANUBE LANES AT THE INDEX’S 15 DAYS’ WAIT · 10K COASTER, HOUSE MODEL · IZMAIL → ADRIATIC $14,117/D · IZMAIL → EGYPTMED $13,581/D · IZMAIL → LEBANON $11,541/D · EACH DAY OFF THE WAIT IS WORTH ABOUT $569/D · ASSUMPTIONS TYPED 24 SEP, BUNKERS GO SHIPPING 2 SEP
THE HOUSE MODEL, DELIVERED AT THE LOAD PORT, LADEN LEG ONLY · RATES QUOTED X OR C ARE COUNTED STRAIGHT THROUGH, SHEX FACTOR 1.0 · PORTS MARKED ~ ARE THE DESK’S ESTIMATES UNTIL CONFIRMED · THE MARKET LINE IS THE LATEST PRINT TYPED ON THAT LANE · THE TANKER TAB PRICES IN $/T, LUMPSUM OR WORLDSCALE, WITH 6 HOURS’ NOTICE EACH END, ROUND VOYAGE ABOVE 10K; WORLDSCALE FLATS STAY IN THE NOTEBOOK AND ARE NEVER PRINTED · NOTHING HERE IS ADVICE
The fixture wireBlack Sea and Med fixtures
Done, bid and failed, one line each. Search it, chart it.21 SEP FIXED IZMAIL → LEBANON, COASTER at $99/T1 PRINT · 21 SEP · A RANGE IS A BAR WITH THE DOT AT ITS MIDDLE · THE LINE APPEARS WITH THE SECOND PRINT
FIXTURES, BIDS AND FAILURES AS REPORTED TO THE DESK, TYPED IN AND DATED ONE BY ONE, SINCE 21 SEP · THE WEEKLY ROUTE PRINTS ARE ON THE COASTER BOARD · SEARCH ANY WORD ON A LINE · NOTHING HERE IS ADVICE
The grain afloatBlack Sea grain at sea
Tonnes and ships by destination, and which gate each cargo needs.4.93 million tonnes at sea on 174 ships, −16.8% on the week · GrainFlow week 374.93MT AT SEA
174 SHIPS · ▼ −16.8% W/W · ▼ −19 SHIPS · ▼ −44.0% FROM THE EARLY JUNE PEAK
17 WEEKS, OLDEST TO NEWEST · TONNES AFLOAT
RED SEA PORTS, AFLOAT: YANBU 644K T · JEDDAH 240K T · KING ABDULLAH 237K T · AQABA 134K T · PORT SUDAN 90K T · DJIBOUTI 58.6K T
LOADED AT: CONSTANTA 2.81 MT (57%) · VARNA 584K T · NOVOROSSIYSK 475K T · UKRAINIAN PORTS, DANUBE INCLUDED 457K T · BURGAS 381K T
GRAINFLOW AND GRAINFLOW OIL, WEEK 37 (7–13 SEP) · DECLARED DESTINATIONS AS LOGGED, GROUPED BY THE DESK · SAUDI CARGOES WITHOUT A NAMED PORT COUNTED AS RED SEA · TYPED BY HAND, ONE WEEK BEHIND
The tender boardWheat and grain tenders
What the state buyers bought, walked away from, or still ask for, and what each C&F price implies for freight.28 SEP PAKISTAN · TCP, 185K T WHEAT, lowest bid $339.36 CFR KARACHI · 8 linesSTATE TENDERS AS REPORTED ON THE WIRES, TYPED BY THE DESK AND DATED ONE BY ONE · REUTERS VIA ARAB NEWS, ZAWYA AND BUSINESS RECORDER, UKRAGROCONSULT, SPA, THE NATION · TONNES AND PRICES ARE TRADERS’ ESTIMATES WHERE THE BUYER PUBLISHES NONE · THE GATE IS WHAT A BLACK SEA CARGO WOULD NEED, THE DESK’S OWN GROUPING
Every grain tender on record, with what each price implies for freight
The oddsHormuz and Red Sea prediction markets
What prediction markets expect next for Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the Gulf, from POLYMARKET · AS OF 28 SEPHormuz traffic back to normal by 31 Dec 24% · US announces end of the Iranian blockade by 31 Dec 60% · A commercial ship hit or seized in the Gulf today 31%The logGulf, Red Sea and Black Sea shipping news
The watchkeeper's log, newest first, when the next numbers land, and the 0600Z brief.28 SEP · TCP opens its 185,000 t wheat bids: 13 received, 12 responsive, Bunge lowest at $339.36 CFR Karachi and $340…The level, the gates and who needs them, the tape, the desk's read and its score, the wire, the coaster board, the grain afloat, the odds and the log — every line dated, the sheet stamped with the time it was made. Print it for the morning meeting, or copy it as text and paste it in the channel.