ZEWAYINTELLIGENCE BY THE RUNNING LIGHT
1559Z · 05 OCT 2026AS OF 28 SEP
DESK 3/4 ON THE WEEKTHE BRIEFBRIEF ARCHIVEABOUT

Hormuz, Red Sea and Black Sea shipping intelligence from a broking desk: the DARKCON Gulf tanker index, chokepoint status, freight rates, fixtures, grain afloat and grain tenders.

How many Gulf tankers went dark tonight?DARKCON 2Shadow Tide: 87 of 246 tankers went dark last night, 1.8× the rate for other ships. As of 28 SEP. Is the Strait of Hormuz open?CLOSED1 transit on 20 SEP against 85 normal. Bab el-Mandeb restricted, Suez open, Turkish Straits no count yet. What does a Black Sea coaster earn?$4,290/d10,000 dwcc delivered Turkish Black Sea for a Constanta, Varna or Burgas load, +$290 on the week. A Ukrainian load pays $14,400, −$190. Index of 21 SEP. Which grain tender printed today?$339.36PAKISTAN · TCP: 185K T wheat CFR KARACHI, lowest bid, award pending (28 SEP). How often is the desk right?3/4Hit on the week’s graded calls; 75% of every call the desk has graded. Every miss is on the scorecard.

The indexDARKCON, the Gulf tanker dark index

How many tankers switched their AIS off last night against everyone else, and who owns the VLCC fleet.DARKCON 2, Shadow Tide · 87 of 246 went dark, 1.8× background
DARKCON · THE LEVELAIS READ 28 SEP 1243Z

2OF 5

SHADOW TIDE

More tankers than usual sailed without lights last night — 1.8 times the rate for other ships in the same water. That is the pattern before a Hormuz run, a hidden cargo, or a hit.

WENT DARK, 24H87OF 246
VS BACKGROUND1.8×20% AMBIENT
7-DAY AVERAGE59▲ ABOVE
5ALL LIGHTS BURNING
4A FEW GO QUIET
3RUNNING DARK
2SHADOW TIDE
1BLACKOUT

1 IS THE WORST · 5 THE CALMEST

1.0×1.2×1.4×1.8×22 SEP · DARKCON 2 SHADOW TIDE · 65 OF 209 WENT DARK · 1.52× BACKGROUND · AS SHIPPED OR SAVED BY THE DESK28 SEP · DARKCON 2 SHADOW TIDE · 87 OF 246 WENT DARK · 1.75× BACKGROUND · AS SHIPPED OR SAVED BY THE DESK22 SEP · Iran offers to reopen Hormuz within seven days in a push for diplomacy — unverified, single-source · LPG tanker hit by debris from unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, two crew injured · Kallas urges the EU to bolster its Red Sea mission against the Houthi threat · Saudi East-West crude pipeline to Yanbu back online, per trade sources; no ministry statement21 SEP · Two tankers hit in the Strait of Hormuz within hours, two seafarers injured · Houthis push to cut off the Red Sea coast after Trump calls off strikes on the group · Six VLCCs load nearly 12 million barrels at Ras Tanura and Ju’aymah in one day, the busiest at the complex since before the war; four entered the Gulf in ballast 15–17 Sep, and 25 of 26 inbound ballast crude-tanker crossings 12–20 Sep showed no destination. Six dark events at Sohar, Fujairah, Basrah and Ras Tanura preceded the surge · Caspian coaster rates keep climbing on Russian grain to Iran; the Azov market stays shut, with no exit into the Black Sea · Russia cuts the wheat export duty to 725.7 RUB/t and corn to 158.4 for 23–29 Sep, from 1,146.3 and 617.5; barley stays at zero28 SEP · TCP opens its 185,000 t wheat bids: 13 received, 12 responsive, Bunge lowest at $339.36 CFR Karachi and $340.36 Gwadar, Aston top at $354.83; the 16 Sep award was $348.83, so the C&F fell $9.47/t in twelve days; award pending, grievances to 1800 on 29 Sep · Kyiv sees no positive sign of a ceasefire covering grain or the Black Sea: every proposal from partners rejected by Moscow, no direct contact, every round of talks tried and none expected to work in the coming months, says agriculture minister Vysotskyi in Brussels · Ukraine asks its partners for stronger export support and an extraordinary FAO session: port strikes put more than 30 million tonnes of this season’s agricultural exports at risk and producer losses above $10bn, with storage, working capital and the 2027–28 plantings under pressure · Russia could restore up to 80% of its Black Sea and Azov grain terminal capacity quickly if the mutual strikes stop; politicians on both sides say a Grain Deal 2.0 is not on the agenda · Uzbekistan took more than 71,000 t of Russian wheat in eight months, sixteen times a year ago, with a record 65,000 t in August: port disruption is pushing Russian exporters to rail and to Central Asia despite Kazakh transit tariffs · Iran finishes laying the 730 km Chabahar–Zahedan line, Afghanistan’s shortest route to the ocean and a port outside Hormuz; operations from early 202716 SEP · JWC circular JWLA-035 lists the whole Black Sea outside Romanian, Bulgarian, Turkish and Georgian territorial waters; the extra cost ex CVB is put at $3–5k a voyage for coasters and $20–40k for supra to panamax06 SEP05 OCT

THIRTY NIGHTS · ONE BAR A NIGHT, LEVEL BY COLOUR, THE LOG’S EVENTS PINNED ABOVE THEIR NIGHT · 2 NIGHTS ON RECORD · THIS BROWSER KEEPS EACH NIGHT IT READS

DARKCON.JSON
THE LIGHT BOARD · ONE DOT PER TANKER246 SCREENED · 87 UNLIT

Every dot is a tanker that was broadcasting inside the Gulf watch box. A dark dot stopped transmitting for 3 to 24 hours. Identities sit behind a paid feed; this board shows the count, not the names. The two counts below are every AIS-visible hull in the watch box, not tankers alone; straits.live reset its AIS basis on 26 SEP, when fixes older than an hour stopped counting, so the holding count stepped down by method that day.

SHIPS HOLDING OFFSHORE229ALL TYPES, AWAY FROM PORT · 28 SEP 1249Z
RISK-FLAGGED HULLS IN THE GULF237113 HIGH · OF 1,985 HULLS ON AIS
WHO OWNS THE SUPERTANKERS · THE TEN LARGEST VLCC FLEETS, SANCTIONED TONNAGE EXCLUDEDTYPED SEP 2026
WORLD VLCC FLEET907
UNDER SANCTIONS167
FREE TO TRADE740
HELD BY THESE TEN53%
1SINOKORCLARKSONS FLEET DATA · AUG 202693VLCCS
2CHINA MERCHANTS ENERGYH1 2026 FILING · JUN 3051VLCCS
3BAHRIH1 2026 FILING · JUN 3049VLCCS
4COSCO SHIPPING ENERGYH1 2026 PRESENTATION · JUN 3041VLCCS
5FRONTLINEQ2 2026 PRESENTATION · AUG 2837VLCCS
6MARAN TANKERSOWNER FLEET LIST · JUN 202633VLCCS
7MITSUI O.S.K. LINESMOL GUIDEBOOK 2026 · OPERATED30VLCCS
8DHT HOLDINGSQ2 2026 FILING · AS AT JUL 2423VLCCS
9NIPPON YUSEN KAISHANYK 2025 · OPERATED22VLCCS
10ASYAD SHIPPINGQ1 2026 PRESENTATION · MAR 3114VLCCS
SINOKOR93 VLCCs, one in eight that can trade. It took 35 of the first 45 VLCCs sold in 2026; in January it ranked twelfth in the world.
SECOND HANDMore than 60 of Sinokor’s were bought used, from at least ten sellers; many still sail in their old owners’ colours.
IRANNITC would tie for fifth with 37. Every one is sanctioned, so none is counted here.

How DARKCON is made, every night on record, and the JSON

The chokepointsHormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, Suez, the Turkish Straits, the Cape, Malacca, Panama

Which gates ships can use, what a detour costs in days, and who needs each.
HORMUZ
CLOSED
1
85
1%
1 PIPE LEFT
40×
IRGC PASSAGE BAN SINCE 28 FEB
WHO NEEDS ITVLCC · LNG · LPG · NAPHTHA
BAB EL-MANDEB
RESTRICTED
26
34
76%
+12 DAYS
TARGETED
HOUTHIS HOLD PERIM ISLAND AND THE YEMENI RED SEA COAST · SAUDI-LINKED HULLS TARGETED
WHO NEEDS ITASIA–EUROPE BOXES · SUEZMAX · BLACK SEA GRAIN TO ASIA
SUEZ CANAL
OPEN
42
39
108%
+10-14 DAYS
CANAL OPEN AND TOLLS UNCHANGED · TRAFFIC DOWN WITH THE RED SEA
WHO NEEDS ITASIA–EUROPE BOXES · SUEZMAX · BLACK SEA GRAIN TO THE RED SEA AND ASIA
TURKISH STRAITS
NO FEED
--
--
--
NO DETOUR
BOSPHORUS AND DARDANELLES, THE ONLY WAY OUT OF THE BLACK SEA
WHO NEEDS ITEVERYTHING BLACK SEA · GRAIN, CPC AND NOVO CRUDE, STEEL, COASTERS
CAPE OF GOOD HOPE
OPEN
85
88
97%
THE DETOUR
CARRYING THE ASIA-EUROPE AND GULF-ATLANTIC DIVERSIONS · ADDS 10 TO 14 DAYS AGAINST SUEZ
WHO NEEDS ITWHATEVER SUEZ AND BAB EL-MANDEB TURN AWAY · ASIA–EUROPE AND GULF–ATLANTIC DIVERSIONS
MALACCA
OPEN
230
237
97%
+2 DAYS
NORMAL · DETOUR VIA LOMBOK OR SUNDA IF NEEDED · GULF-BOUND VLCCS IN BALLAST ARE THE ONES TO WATCH
WHO NEEDS ITVLCC AND LNG TO NORTH-EAST ASIA · BOXES
PANAMA CANAL
NO FEED
--
--
--
+10 DAYS
THE COUNT IS PORTWATCH’S OWN PANAMA ROW, READ DIRECT WHEN THE FEED ANSWERS; DASHES MEAN IT DID NOT
WHO NEEDS ITUS GULF LPG · BOXES
IMF PORTWATCH DAILY TRANSITS, LATEST PUBLISHED DAY 20 SEP, VIA STRAITS.LIVE · TURKISH STRAITS READ DIRECT FROM PORTWATCH, LATEST DAY — · NORMAL = THE FEB 2025–FEB 2026 MEDIAN; FOR SUEZ, BAB EL-MANDEB AND THE CAPE THAT YEAR ALREADY CARRIED THE RED SEA DIVERSION, SO THEIR LOAD READS HIGH · MORE ON A ROW OPENS THE WHOLE REMARK AND THE LAST FOURTEEN PUBLISHED DAYS

DRAG THE BOARD SIDEWAYS FOR EVERY COLUMN →

Is the Strait of Hormuz open? The full Hormuz page · All seven chokepoints, with their remarks in full

HOW TO READ THIS PAGE · FORTY SECONDS, ONCEOPEN

The number

DARKCON is the share of screened Gulf tankers that stopped broadcasting AIS in the last 24 hours, divided by the share of other ships that did the same on the identical test, so ordinary reception dropout cancels out. What's left is ships choosing to go dark. Five levels, read like DEFCON: 1 is BLACKOUT, the worst; 5 is ALL LIGHTS BURNING. The light board beside it shows the count, one dot per tanker, never the names. The strip under the ladder is the last thirty nights, one bar each, the log's events pinned above the night they happened; this browser keeps every night it reads, and the desk notebook can backfill the rest. THE CARD button draws the number as a 1200×630 picture for the channel, shared where the browser has a share sheet and downloaded everywhere else; the same picture, saved as og.png beside the page, is what a shared link previews. DARKCON.JSON is the same numbers for machines.

The chokepoints

Each chokepoint is a flight. SHIPS is how many crossed on the latest published day, NORMAL the median of the year before Hormuz shut, February 2025 to February 2026, LOAD one against the other. For Suez, Bab el-Mandeb and the Cape that year already carried the Red Sea diversion, so their LOAD reads high and their remarks say so. DETOUR is what avoiding the chokepoint costs in days. WAR RISK is the hull premium as a multiple of the pre-war rate, where one is quoted. The status flap is set by the count; Bab el-Mandeb is set by hand while ships are being hit. Remarks scroll; hover to hold one. WHO NEEDS IT, under each row, is the trades that depend on that gate, so a flap change reads straight into a market. Under that, the last fourteen published days as bars against NORMAL, and the day the flap last changed. The Turkish Straits row reads PortWatch's own Bosporus count directly, its NORMAL the median of the same pre-crisis year the other rows use.
OPEN flow within a quarter of normal, no targeting THIN passage safe, flow down by more than a quarter RESTRICTED ships being targeted or admitted selectively CLOSED under a quarter of normal, or shut by an authority NO FEED no bound count; dashes, never a guess

The seal

LIVE and a time: your browser reached the feeds just now, and asks again every 30 minutes while the tab is open. AS OF 28 SEP: the numbers the page shipped with. FEED UNREACHED, in amber: no answer within nine seconds, so the last numbers stay and say so. The odds carry their own seal. Freight prints are dated one by one. THE 0600Z BRIEF is this page on one sheet, stamped with the time it was made: print it, or copy it as text for the channel. Nothing here is advice.

The desk

The desk's blocks are typed by hand, not fed, and each carries the date it was written. THE MED & BLACK SEA is the desk's read by segment. THE COASTER BOARD is what small tonnage earns and what a tonne costs on the main routes: the delivery-TBS earnings, the coaster route prints and the open tonnage come from the Monday Coaster Freight Index, the round-voyage earnings and the HANDY TO SUPRAMAX prints from the Friday assessments, each block dated with its own print. TCE is the daily time-charter equivalent, DWCC the cargo a ship carries, CVB Constanta, Varna and Burgas, POC the Ukrainian deep-sea ports, TBS the Turkish Black Sea delivery basis, RV a round voyage with the way back empty. THE GRAIN AFLOAT counts every grain cargo that has left a Black Sea port and not yet arrived, from GrainFlow, which runs a week behind; the desk groups its declared destinations by the chokepoint each one needs. THE VALUES is what a 30,000-tonner is worth at ten and twenty years old, in US$ millions. THE FIXTURE WIRE is what was done, bid or failed, one line each, dated one by one: search any word on a line, and chart one route across every print. THE SCORECARD grades the desk's own calls against the next weekly print, hit or miss, and shows every miss. RATE THE STEM runs the house voyage model over any lane in the basin: pick the ports, the ship and the stem, type a freight and read the daily earning, or type the earning you need and read the freight, with the market's latest print on that lane beside it. Its amber line prices the Danube lanes at the index's fifteen days of waiting, so the wait reads as dollars a day. Ports marked ~ are the desk's estimates until confirmed, and every figure that uses one says so. The TANKER tab prices liquid stems from a 5,000-tonner to a Suezmax on the same table: vegoil, CPP, DPP, chemicals and UAN, in dollars a tonne, lumpsum or Worldscale, with hours in port, heating, cleaning and the ballast leg back; a Worldscale flat lives in the notebook and never prints. THE TENDER BOARD is what the state buyers bought, walked away from or still ask for, typed from the wires as reported: tonnes, C&F price, shipment window, discharge ports, and the gate a Black Sea cargo would need, with every window laid on a calendar. THE TAPE tab charts every C&F by date, one line per buyer. Under each priced line the board prints the implied freight, C&F less FOB: the desk's typed FOB where there is one, otherwise the index's indicative Russian wheat FOB, and it says which. Where the desk has named the nearest freight print, the line adds FOB plus that print and the gap the C&F leaves over it; where the house model prices the ship, the earning at the implied freight prints too. THE SEAL beside the clock is the desk's hit rate on the week's graded calls. The five tiles at the top are the page's answers, and everything beneath them is open on the page; a heading folds its section to one line, and this browser remembers which you folded. When you come back, an amber pill in the header counts what changed since your last visit and opens the list; that memory lives in this browser and nowhere else.

The tapeTanker and dry bulk freight rates today

Brent, VLCC and Suezmax earnings, the Baltic dry indices and the war-risk multiple, each print dated.BRENT $106.11 +1.7% 24H · VLCC $451,000/D +68% W/W · BDI 3,336 +0.3% · SUPRAMAX 1,762 +0.8%
BRENT$106.11+1.7% 24H28 SEPHORMUZ WAR RISK40×PRE-WARSTRAITS EST.VLCC$451,000/D+68% W/WRECORD16 SEPSUEZMAX$343,000/D+94% W/WRECORD16 SEPBDI3,336+0.3%17 SEPCAPESIZE5,656+0.8%17 SEPPANAMAX2,282−1.8%17 SEPSUPRAMAX1,762+0.8%17 SEPGLOBAL CFI+$0.50/TW/W21 SEPBLACK SEA CFI+$0.62/TW/W21 SEPMED CFI+$0.89/TW/W21 SEPGULF OF FINLAND CFI+$1.34/TW/W21 SEPCVB–MED 10K TCE$4,290/D+$29021 SEPUKRAINE (POC)–MED 10K TCE$14,400/D−$19021 SEPCVB–MED 10K RV$1,860/D−$4025 SEPDANUBE/POC–EMED 5K RV$6,850/D−$47025 SEPWHEAT CONSTANTA → ADRIATIC$30/T+$1.521 SEPWHEAT ODESA / CHORNOMORSK → ALEXANDRIA$124/TUNCH21 SEPWHEAT RENI / IZMAIL → ADRIATIC$115/TUNCH21 SEPBILLETS NOVOROSSIYSK → MARMARA$76/TUNCH21 SEPWHEAT ODESA / CHORNOMORSK → ALEXANDRIA 25–30K T$97/T+$1025 SEPWHEAT NOVOROSSIYSK → ALEXANDRIA 25–30K T$110/T+$725 SEPWHEAT CONSTANTA / VARNA → ALEXANDRIA 25–30K T$23/T+$2.525 SEPGRAIN AFLOAT EX BLSEA4.93 MT▼ −16.8% W/WWK 37IZMAIL–LEBANON$99/TFIXED21 SEPIZMAIL / RENI–EGYPTMED$105–110/TFIXED21 SEPTENDER · JORDAN 60K T WHEAT$332 C&FTO AQABA22 SEPTENDER · PAKISTAN 365K T WHEAT$348.83 CFRTO KARACHI / GWADAR16 SEP

BALTIC EXCHANGE · CLARKSONS · BRENT AND THE WAR-RISK MULTIPLE VIA STRAITS.LIVE · COASTER EARNINGS, COASTER AND HANDY TO SUPRAMAX PRINTS AND THE GRAIN AFLOAT, TYPED WEEKLY, AS DATED

The Med & Black SeaThe desk's read and the coaster freight board

Tankers, dry bulk and coasters in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, the values, and the scorecard.Tankers firm, dry bulk steady, read 25 SEP · score 3 of 4 graded
TANKERS · FIRMDESK READ 25 SEP
AFRAMAX · CROSS-MEDTD19 CEYHAN–MED
FIRM▲
Med tonnage pulled east by the Gulf earnings; Ceyhan and Sidi Kerir stems bid up.
SUEZMAX · BLACK SEA–MEDTD6 CPC–AUGUSTA
FIRM▲
CPC liftings steady; ballasters leaving for the Gulf thin the Med list.
MR · MED PRODUCTSTC6 SKIKDA–EUROMED
STEADY→
Cross-Med steady; Bab el-Mandeb targeting keeps the LRs out of the basin.
DRY BULK & COASTERS · STEADYDESK READ 25 SEP
COASTERS · CVB, THE NON-PREMIUM BLACK SEA25 SEP · 10,000 DWCC MINIBULKER RV EARNS $1,860/D, −40
STEADY→
Round-voyage earnings ex CVB slipped $10–40 a day at every size: $1,860 for a 10,000 DWCC minibulker, $1,070 for a 5,000 seagoing, $860 for a 3,000. Last week's $0.5–1.5/t only covered the bunkers, and this week gave a little of it back. Bigger stems ex Constanta and Varna print +$1–4.5/t, the smallest rise in the basin. Owners are not making money yet.
COASTERS · UKRAINE, DANUBE AND POC25 SEP · 5,000 DWCC RV EARNS $6,850/D, −470
SOFT▼
The Danube and POC round voyage gave back $470 a day on the week, and the delivery-TBS chart has the 10,000 and 5,000 DWCC earnings off their week-38 peaks; that table prints next. $100–120k of war-risk cover and crew bonus and 10–20 days of waiting still sit inside the earning. The bigger stems tell the other story: 25–30k t of wheat Odesa to Alexandria is $97/t, +10, four times Constanta.
COASTERS · MEDITERRANEAN25 SEP · MARMARA → MED 5,000 DWCC RV EARNS $1,630/D, +350
FIRM▲
The Med round voyages carried the week: Marmara to the Med +$350 a day at 5,000 DWCC and +$230 at 3,000, Iberia to North Africa +$250 to $1,970. Fewer open ships and more stems, and bunkers are still the owners' argument.
HANDY TO SUPRAMAX · BLACK SEA GRAIN25 SEP · 25–30K T WHEAT ODESA → ALEXANDRIA $97/T, +10
FIRM▲
Every Black Sea and Med lane printed higher on the week, +$7–11/t ex Ukraine and Russia and +$1–4.5/t ex Constanta and Varna, while the Atlantic, Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean assessments were unchanged. The war-risk listing is being paid: Odesa to Alexandria $97/t and Novorossiysk $110/t against Constanta's $23. Grain afloat is still 44% below the June peak, so this is risk and tonnage, not volume.
THE COASTER BOARD · WHAT SMALL TONNAGE EARNS, $ A DAYTBS 21 SEP · RV 25 SEP
BLACK SEA LOADINGS · DELIVERY TBS, A SHORT BALLAST LEG · CFI 21 SEP, WEEK 38
CVB → MARMARA / MEDSEAGOING · 5,000 DWCC▲ +$170$2,450/D
CVB → MARMARA / MEDSEAGOING · 10,000 DWCC▲ +$290$4,290/D
UKRAINE (POC) → MARMARA / MEDSEAGOING · 5,000 DWCC▲ +$130$9,970/D
UKRAINE (POC) → MARMARA / MEDSEAGOING · 10,000 DWCC▼ −$190$14,400/D
ROUND VOYAGE · THE WAY BACK IN BALLAST · 25 SEP, WEEK 39
CVB → MED RVMINIBULKER · 10,000 DWCC▼ −$40$1,860/D
CVB → MARMARA / EMED RVSEAGOING · 5,000 DWCC▼ −$20$1,070/D
DANUBE / POC → MARMARA / EMED RVSEAGOING · 5,000 DWCC▼ −$470$6,850/D
MARMARA → MED RVSEAGOING · 5,000 DWCC▲ +$350$1,630/D
INTER-WMED RV · IBERIA – N. AFRICASEAGOING · 5,000 DWCC▲ +$250$1,970/D
GULF OF FINLAND → UK / IRELANDCOASTER · 5,000 DWCC▲ +$120$3,370/D

UKRAINIAN PORTS PAY 3.4× CVB AT 10,000 DWCC, BASIS TBS 21 SEP · $100–120K EWRI AND CREW BONUS AND 10–20 DAYS OF WAITING PRICED IN · ON 25–30K T OF WHEAT TO ALEXANDRIA, 25 SEP, ODESA PAYS 4.2× AND NOVOROSSIYSK 4.8× CONSTANTA

ROUTE PRINTS · WHAT A TONNE COSTS, SPOTCFI 21 SEP · MOVE ON THE WEEK
WHEAT · CONSTANTA → ADRIATIC5–6,000 T · 2000X / 2000X▲ +$1.5$30/T
WHEAT · ODESA / CHORNOMORSK → ALEXANDRIA5–6,000 T · 2000X / 1500X→ UNCH$124/T
WHEAT · RENI / IZMAIL → ADRIATIC5–6,000 T · 2000X / 2000X→ UNCH$115/T
BILLETS · NOVOROSSIYSK → MARMARA5–6,000 T · 2000X / 1500X→ UNCH$76/T
UREA · TUAPSE → ISKENDERUN6–7,000 T · 4000C / 3000X→ UNCH$106/T
STEEL PROFILES · BARTIN → CASABLANCA7–8,000 T · 2000X / 2000X▲ +$3$42/T
WHEAT · KLAIPEDA → WATERFORD / CORK3–5,000 T · 2000C / 2000X▲ +€2€35/T
HANDY TO SUPRAMAX · WHAT A TONNE COSTS ON THE BIG STEMS · 25 SEP, WEEK 39
WHEAT · ODESA / CHORNOMORSK → ALEXANDRIA25–30K T · 7000X / 5000X▲ +$10$97/T
WHEAT · NOVOROSSIYSK → ALEXANDRIA25–30K T · 8000X / 5000X▲ +$7$110/T
WHEAT · CONSTANTA / VARNA → ALEXANDRIA25–30K T · 8000X / 5000X▲ +$2.5$23/T
WHEAT · ODESA / CHORNOMORSK → MARMARA25–30K T · 8000X / 4500X▲ +$8$78/T
WHEAT · CONSTANTA → JEDDAH50–60K T · 10000X / 5000X · RED SEA VIA SUEZ▲ +$1$45.5/T
WHEAT · CONSTANTA → CIWANDAN / CIGADING50–60K T · 10000X / 7000X · BEYOND BAB EL-MANDEB, OR THE CAPE▲ +$1$49.5/T
MAIZE · ODESA / CHORNOMORSK → BANDAR ABBAS25–30K T · 7000X / 4500X · INSIDE HORMUZ, WHICH THE BOARD CALLS CLOSED▲ +$9$154/T
STEEL · NOVOROSSIYSK → ISKENDERUN25–30K T · 6000C / 6000X▲ +$7$110/T
COAL · TAMAN → ISKENDERUN25–30K T · 15000C / 6000C▲ +$7$104/T
UREA · NOVOROSSIYSK → SANTOS25–30K T · 8000C / 6000C▲ +$7$136/T
OPEN COASTERS, 2–12K DWT · CARGO OFFERS, 1.5–13K T LOTS
OPEN · BLACK SEA39▼ −13 W/W
OPEN · MARMARA TO THE ADRIATIC193▼ −36 W/W
CARGO OFFERS · BLACK SEA AND MED1,024▲ +1 W/W · 4.4 PER OPEN SHIP, 3.6 LAST WEEK
NORTH EUROPE · OPEN183▲ +2 W/W · BALTIC, CONTINENT, BISCAY
THE VALUES · DRY BULK · HANDYSIZE · 30K DWTEASING · DESK READ 23 SEP
10 YEARS OLD$18.5M▼ −0.5M VS LAST MONTHSIX MONTHS, OLDEST TO NEWEST
20 YEARS OLD$8.2M▼ −0.3M VS LAST MONTHSIX MONTHS, OLDEST TO NEWEST
REPORTED SALES, NEWEST FIRST
HANDYSIZE 32,000 DWT · BUILT 2014 JAPANGREEK BUYERS · 18 SEP$17.8M
HANDYSIZE 28,500 DWT · BUILT 2006 JAPANTURKISH BUYERS · 16 SEP$8.0M
HANDYSIZE 33,700 DWT · BUILT 2011 CHINAUNDISCLOSED · 12 SEP$13.2M
THE VALUES · TANKERS · PRODUCTS · 30K DWTFIRMING · DESK READ 23 SEP
10 YEARS OLD$27.0M▲ +1.5M VS LAST MONTHSIX MONTHS, OLDEST TO NEWEST
20 YEARS OLD$12.5M▲ +1.0M VS LAST MONTHSIX MONTHS, OLDEST TO NEWEST
REPORTED SALES, NEWEST FIRST
PRODUCTS 37,000 DWT · BUILT 2013 KOREAMIDDLE EAST BUYERS · 19 SEP$29.5M
PRODUCTS 34,000 DWT · BUILT 2005 KOREAUNDISCLOSED · 15 SEP$12.8M
PRODUCTS 30,000 DWT · BUILT 2009 JAPANGREEK BUYERS · 11 SEP$18.9M

BROKERS' WEEKLY S&P REPORTS AS RECEIVED BY THE DESK · VALUES IN US$ MILLIONS · CHANGE AGAINST LAST MONTH

WHO OWNS THE WORLD FLEET · BENEFICIAL OWNERSHIP, RANKED BY DWTBENEFICIAL OWNERSHIP · SHIPS OF 1,000 GT AND ABOVE · 1 JAN 2026
THE TOP FIVE
1GREECE5,168 SHIPS397.1M DWT
2CHINA11,186 SHIPS377.0M DWT
3JAPAN4,139 SHIPS243.2M DWT
4SINGAPORE3,250 SHIPS182.4M DWT
5HONG KONG, CHINA1,978 SHIPS122.8M DWT
ELSEWHERE IN THE RANKING
9UNITED KINGDOM1,275 SHIPS61.1M DWT
14UNITED STATES1,689 SHIPS45.6M DWT
27RUSSIA1,661 SHIPS17.5M DWT
THE GAP IS CLOSINGGreece’s lead over China fell from 152M dwt in 2017 to 20M in 2026.
CHINA WITH HONG KONG499.8M dwt together, ahead of Greece.
OWNER, NOT FLAGCounted where the owner is based, whatever flag the ship flies.
THE SCORECARD · THE DESK'S CALLS, GRADED IN PUBLICCALLS DATED 25 SEP · LAST GRADED 25 SEP
HIT RATE, EVERY GRADED CALL75%3 OF 4EVERY CALL SINCE 23 SEP, GRADED AGAINST THE NEXT PRINT · 1 MISS ON THE RECORD
OPEN · 7 CALLS FROM 25 SEP
AFRAMAX · CROSS-MEDTANKERS · TD19 CEYHAN–MEDFIRM ▲NEXT PRINT
SUEZMAX · BLACK SEA–MEDTANKERS · TD6 CPC–AUGUSTAFIRM ▲NEXT PRINT
MR · MED PRODUCTSTANKERS · TC6 SKIKDA–EUROMEDSTEADY →NEXT PRINT
COASTERS · CVB, THE NON-PREMIUM BLACK SEADRY BULK · 25 SEP · 10,000 DWCC MINIBULKER RV EARNS $1,860/D, −40STEADY →NEXT PRINT
COASTERS · UKRAINE, DANUBE AND POCDRY BULK · 25 SEP · 5,000 DWCC RV EARNS $6,850/D, −470SOFT ▼NEXT PRINT
COASTERS · MEDITERRANEANDRY BULK · 25 SEP · MARMARA → MED 5,000 DWCC RV EARNS $1,630/D, +350FIRM ▲NEXT PRINT
HANDY TO SUPRAMAX · BLACK SEA GRAINDRY BULK · 25 SEP · 25–30K T WHEAT ODESA → ALEXANDRIA $97/T, +10FIRM ▲NEXT PRINT
GRADED, NEWEST FIRST
COASTERS · CVB, THE NON-PREMIUM BLACK SEACALLED 23 SEP · GRADED 25 SEP · CVB 10K MINIBULKER RV TCE −40 W/W, INSIDE THE BAND→ → →HIT
COASTERS · UKRAINE, DANUBE AND POCCALLED 23 SEP · GRADED 25 SEP · DANUBE / POC 5K RV TCE −470 W/W▼ → ▼HIT
COASTERS · MEDITERRANEANCALLED 23 SEP · GRADED 25 SEP · MARMARA → MED 5K RV TCE +350 W/W▲ → ▲HIT
HANDY TO SUPRAMAX · BLACK SEA GRAINCALLED 23 SEP · GRADED 25 SEP · BLACK SEA WHEAT, 25–30K T, +$7–11/T W/W EX UKRAINE AND RUSSIA▼ → ▲MISS

THE RULE · A CALL IS UP, DOWN OR FLAT, WRITTEN ON THE DESK READ DATE. IT IS GRADED WHEN THE NEXT WEEKLY REFERENCE LANDS: A HIT WHEN THE PRINT MOVED THE WAY THE DESK SAID, FLAT A HIT WHEN IT STAYED INSIDE THE DESK'S OWN BAND. THE DESK TYPES THE OUTCOME; THE PAGE DOES THE ARITHMETIC AND SHOWS EVERY MISS.

THE DRY BULK AND COASTER ROWS WERE RE-READ ON THE 25 SEP PRINTS AND THE 23 SEP CALLS GRADED ON THE SCORECARD · THE TANKER ROWS ARE CARRIED FROM THE 23 SEP READ, UNCHANGED AND UNGRADED: NO TANKER REFERENCE HAS LANDED SINCE. ADDED 28 SEP, ON THE UKRAINE, DANUBE AND POC ROW: KYIV SEES NO SIGN OF A BLACK SEA CEASEFIRE AND THE MINISTRY PUTS 30 MILLION TONNES OF THIS SEASON’S EXPORTS AT RISK FROM PORT STRIKES, SO THE WAR-RISK COVER AND THE WAITING STAY INSIDE THE EARNING AND THE ODESA PREMIUM OVER CONSTANTA HOLDS; THE SOFT CALL STANDS UNTIL THE NEXT PRINT.

Black Sea and Med freight rates on their own page, every print dated

Rate the stemA Black Sea and Med voyage estimate

The house model over any lane in the basin: pick the ports, the ship and the stem, and read the earning or the freight.5k coaster and 10k coaster priced · dry cargo and tanker tabs · assumptions typed 24 SEP
RATE THE STEM · THE HOUSE MODEL OVER ANY LANE IN THE BASINASSUMPTIONS TYPED 24 SEP · BUNKERS GO SHIPPING 2 SEP
THE MODEL SAYS · 10K COASTER · CONSTANTA → RAVENNA · 6,000 T$4,320/DAY AT $30.0/T

14.5 DAYS · SEA 4.5 · PORT 8.0 · WAITING 1.0 · MARGIN 1.0 · 1,178 NM

GROSS $180,000 · COMM 3.75% $6,750 · BUNKERS $78,267 · DAS $24,000 · DUES $4,500 · WAR RISK $4,000 · NET $62,483

THE MARKET SAYS $30.0/T · CFI 21 SEP, WHEAT 5–6K T · WORTH $4,320/DAY ON THIS STEM

EACH $1/T OF FREIGHT IS WORTH $399/DAY · EACH DAY OF WAITING COSTS $391/DAY · MGO +$100/T COSTS $376/DAY

DISTANCES AND DAS FOR CONSTANTA ARE THE DESK’S ESTIMATES, UNVERIFIED (~)

DAYS14.5
BUNKERS$78,267
DAS, DUES & WAR RISK$32,500
NET TO THE OWNER$62,483

THE DANUBE LANES AT THE INDEX’S 15 DAYS’ WAIT · 10K COASTER, HOUSE MODEL · IZMAIL → ADRIATIC $14,117/D · IZMAIL → EGYPTMED $13,581/D · IZMAIL → LEBANON $11,541/D · EACH DAY OFF THE WAIT IS WORTH ABOUT $569/D · ASSUMPTIONS TYPED 24 SEP, BUNKERS GO SHIPPING 2 SEP

THE HOUSE MODEL, DELIVERED AT THE LOAD PORT, LADEN LEG ONLY · RATES QUOTED X OR C ARE COUNTED STRAIGHT THROUGH, SHEX FACTOR 1.0 · PORTS MARKED ~ ARE THE DESK’S ESTIMATES UNTIL CONFIRMED · THE MARKET LINE IS THE LATEST PRINT TYPED ON THAT LANE · THE TANKER TAB PRICES IN $/T, LUMPSUM OR WORLDSCALE, WITH 6 HOURS’ NOTICE EACH END, ROUND VOYAGE ABOVE 10K; WORLDSCALE FLATS STAY IN THE NOTEBOOK AND ARE NEVER PRINTED · NOTHING HERE IS ADVICE

The fixture wireBlack Sea and Med fixtures

Done, bid and failed, one line each. Search it, chart it.21 SEP FIXED IZMAIL → LEBANON, COASTER at $99/T
THE WIRE · NEWEST FIRSTTYPED 23 SEP · 3 LINES
3 OF 3
21 SEPFIXEDIZMAIL → LEBANON— · COASTER$99/TCOASTER FREIGHT INDEX · DESK PIN
21 SEPFIXEDIZMAIL / RENI → EGYPTMED— · COASTER · DONE MID-WEEK$105–110/TCOASTER FREIGHT INDEX · DESK PIN
21 SEPBIDIZMAIL / RENI → EGYPTMED— · COASTER · CHARTERERS' BIDS AFTER THE $105–110 DONE$92–97/TCOASTER FREIGHT INDEX · DESK PIN
THE CHART · ONE ROUTE, EVERY PRINT
$86$99$11221 SEP21 SEP · FIXED · $99/T · COASTER FREIGHT INDEX · DESK PIN

1 PRINT · 21 SEP · A RANGE IS A BAR WITH THE DOT AT ITS MIDDLE · THE LINE APPEARS WITH THE SECOND PRINT

FIXED done, as reportedBID charterers' bids, not doneFAILED subjects failed or withdrawn

FIXTURES, BIDS AND FAILURES AS REPORTED TO THE DESK, TYPED IN AND DATED ONE BY ONE, SINCE 21 SEP · THE WEEKLY ROUTE PRINTS ARE ON THE COASTER BOARD · SEARCH ANY WORD ON A LINE · NOTHING HERE IS ADVICE

Every fixture, bid and failure on the wire, dated

The grain afloatBlack Sea grain at sea

Tonnes and ships by destination, and which gate each cargo needs.4.93 million tonnes at sea on 174 ships, −16.8% on the week · GrainFlow week 37
AT SEA · TONNES AND SHIPSGRAINFLOW · WEEK 37 · 7–13 SEP

4.93MT AT SEA

174 SHIPS · ▼ −16.8% W/W · ▼ −19 SHIPS · ▼ −44.0% FROM THE EARLY JUNE PEAK

17 WEEKS, OLDEST TO NEWEST · TONNES AFLOAT

SAILED, WEEK 37886K T51 SHIPS▲ +20.8% W/W · 733K T ON 54 SHIPS LAST WEEK
DISCHARGED, WEEK 371.81 MT66 SHIPS▲ +20.9% W/W
LOADED AT, WEEK 37ROMANIA 461K T · BULGARIA 232K T · RUSSIA 110K T · UKRAINE 83.3K TUKRAINE: NO DEEP-SEA SAILING LOGGED, ALL 83K T EX DANUBE · LAST DEEP-SEA DEPARTURE STILL AFLOAT LEFT PIVDENNYI 29 AUG
THE FLEET AFLOAT61 COASTERS ≤13K · 54 HANDY 13–49K · 41 SUPRA–ULTRA 49–67K · 18 PANAMAX+ >67KCOASTERS ▼ −4 · HANDY → UNCH · SUPRA–ULTRA ▼ −9 · PANAMAX+ ▼ −6 W/W
WHERE IT IS GOING · DECLARED DESTINATIONS, BY THE GATE THEY NEEDGRAINFLOW · WEEK 37 · 7–13 SEP
MED · EUROPE · N. AFRICA34%1.69 MT · 96 SHIPSNO CHOKEPOINT
RED SEA PORTS32%1.56 MT · 30 SHIPSIN THROUGH SUEZ · SOUTH OF THEM, SHIPS ARE BEING HIT
BEYOND BAB EL-MANDEB26%1.30 MT · 27 SHIPSE. AFRICA, ASIA, GULF OF OMAN · THE STRAIT OR THE CAPE
INSIDE HORMUZ3%156K T · 5 SHIPSTHE BOARD CALLS HORMUZ CLOSED
UNDECLARED4%201K T · 11 SHIPSNO DESTINATION GIVEN
CASPIAN0%23K T · 5 SHIPSVOLGA–DON, NOT SUEZ
BOUND BEYOND SUEZ3.02 MT61% · 62 SHIPSEvery tonne of it needs the canal, which the board calls THIN, or the Cape. 19 ships and 909K T have been out more than 45 days.
BOUND INSIDE HORMUZ156K T5 SHIPSThe board calls Hormuz CLOSED. The oldest has been out 139 days: corn ex Chornomorsk for Umm Qasr, out since 27 Apr.

RED SEA PORTS, AFLOAT: YANBU 644K T · JEDDAH 240K T · KING ABDULLAH 237K T · AQABA 134K T · PORT SUDAN 90K T · DJIBOUTI 58.6K T
LOADED AT: CONSTANTA 2.81 MT (57%) · VARNA 584K T · NOVOROSSIYSK 475K T · UKRAINIAN PORTS, DANUBE INCLUDED 457K T · BURGAS 381K T

RUSSIAN WHEAT EXPORT DUTY725.7 RUB/T▼ −36.7% FROM 1,146.3 · CORN 158.4, BARLEY 0 · VALID 23–29 SEP · INDICATIVE FOB WHEAT $225.9/T
SUNFLOWER OIL SAILED, WEEK 3716.4K T2 TANKERS · ▼ −70.5% W/W · 54.1K T AFLOAT ON 15 SHIPS · GRAINFLOW OIL
WHO IS CARRYING IT57% EX CONSTANTAROMANIA IS THE BASIN'S GRAIN GATEWAY THIS SEASON · UKRAINIAN PORTS 9% · RUSSIAN DEEP-SEA PORTS 10%

GRAINFLOW AND GRAINFLOW OIL, WEEK 37 (7–13 SEP) · DECLARED DESTINATIONS AS LOGGED, GROUPED BY THE DESK · SAUDI CARGOES WITHOUT A NAMED PORT COUNTED AS RED SEA · TYPED BY HAND, ONE WEEK BEHIND

Black Sea grain at sea on its own page

The tender boardWheat and grain tenders

What the state buyers bought, walked away from, or still ask for, and what each C&F price implies for freight.28 SEP PAKISTAN · TCP, 185K T WHEAT, lowest bid $339.36 CFR KARACHI · 8 lines
THE AWARDS · NEWEST FIRSTTYPED 28 SEP · 8 LINES
28 SEPOPENPAKISTAN · TCP · WHEAT · 185K TTO KARACHI / GWADAR · ORIGIN OPTIONAL, LATEST CROP · WINDOWS SET AT AWARD · 60K T LOTSTURKISH STRAITS · SUEZ · BAB EL-MANDEB FROM THE BLACK SEA · IMPLIED FREIGHT $113.5/T OVER $225.9 FOB (INDICATIVE RUSSIAN WHEAT FOB, CFI 21 SEP)$339.36LOWEST BID · CFR KARACHI
22 SEPAWARDEDJORDAN · MIT · HARD MILLING WHEAT · 60K TTO AQABA · ORIGIN OPTIONAL · SOLD BY BUILDCOM, A BULGARIAN TRADER · SHIP 01 NOV–15 NOV · 60K T LOTSTURKISH STRAITS · SUEZ FROM THE BLACK SEA · IMPLIED FREIGHT $106.1/T OVER $225.9 FOB (INDICATIVE RUSSIAN WHEAT FOB, CFI 21 SEP)$332C&F
16 SEPAWARDEDPAKISTAN · TCP · WHEAT · 365K TTO KARACHI / GWADAR · ORIGIN OPTIONAL, LATEST CROP · AGROCORP LOWEST, OLAM HIGHEST · SHIP 11 OCT–31 OCT · ARRIVE 20 NOV · 55K T LOTSTURKISH STRAITS · SUEZ · BAB EL-MANDEB FROM THE BLACK SEA · IMPLIED FREIGHT $122.9/T OVER $225.9 FOB (INDICATIVE RUSSIAN WHEAT FOB, CFI 21 SEP)$348.83CFR KARACHI
15 SEPAWARDEDALGERIA · OAIC · MILLING WHEAT · 500–510K TTO ALGERIAN PORTS · ORIGIN OPTIONAL · SHIP 01 NOV–15 NOV · SHIP 16 NOV–30 NOV · LOT NOT STATEDTURKISH STRAITS FROM THE BLACK SEA · IMPLIED FREIGHT $93.1/T OVER $225.9 FOB (INDICATIVE RUSSIAN WHEAT FOB, CFI 21 SEP)$319–321C&F
8 SEPNO AWARDSAUDI ARABIA · GFSA · HARD WHEAT · 535K TTO JEDDAH 240K · YANBU 240K · JAZAN 55K · ORIGIN OPTIONAL · RED SEA PORTS ONLY, HORMUZ AVOIDED · ARRIVE 01 NOV–15 DEC · 60K T LOTSTURKISH STRAITS · SUEZ FROM THE BLACK SEA
1 SEPNOTETURKEY · TMO · WHEATTO MARMARATURKISH STRAITS FROM THE BLACK SEA
5 AUGAWARDEDALGERIA · OAIC · MILLING WHEAT · 540–720K TTO ALGERIAN PORTS · ORIGIN OPTIONAL · ROMANIA AND BULGARIA EXPECTED TO SUPPLY MOST · RUSSIAN OFFERED, NOT FAVOURED · SHIP 15 SEP–30 SEP · SHIP 01 OCT–15 OCT · SHIP 16 OCT–31 OCT · LOT NOT STATEDTURKISH STRAITS FROM THE BLACK SEA · IMPLIED FREIGHT $63.1/T OVER $225.9 FOB (INDICATIVE RUSSIAN WHEAT FOB, CFI 21 SEP)$289–290C&F
6 JULAWARDEDSAUDI ARABIA · GFSA · WHEAT · 661K TTO JEDDAH 244K IN 4 SHIPS · YANBU 362K IN 6 · JAZAN 55K IN 1 · ORIGIN EU · AMERICAS · AUSTRALIA · BLACK SEA · ARRIVE 01 SEP–31 OCT · 60K T LOTSTURKISH STRAITS · SUEZ FROM THE BLACK SEA · IMPLIED FREIGHT $42.1/T OVER $225.9 FOB (INDICATIVE RUSSIAN WHEAT FOB, CFI 21 SEP)$268–273C&F
THE CALENDAR · SHIPMENT AND ARRIVAL WINDOWS, TONNES ON EACHSOLID SHIPMENT · HOLLOW ARRIVAL · RED NO AWARD
OCTNOVDECJANTODAYJORDAN 60K TJORDAN · MIT · 60K T · SHIP 01 NOV–15 NOV · $332 C&FPAKISTAN 365K TPAKISTAN · TCP · 365K T · SHIP 11 OCT–31 OCT · $348.83 CFR KARACHIPAKISTAN · TCP · 365K T · ARRIVE 20 NOV · $348.83 CFR KARACHIALGERIA 500K TALGERIA · OAIC · 500–510K T · SHIP 01 NOV–15 NOV · $319–321 C&FALGERIA · OAIC · 500–510K T · SHIP 16 NOV–30 NOV · $319–321 C&FSAUDI ARABIA 535K TSAUDI ARABIA · GFSA · 535K T · ARRIVE 01 NOV–15 DECALGERIA 540K TALGERIA · OAIC · 540–720K T · SHIP 15 SEP–30 SEP · $289–290 C&FALGERIA · OAIC · 540–720K T · SHIP 01 OCT–15 OCT · $289–290 C&FALGERIA · OAIC · 540–720K T · SHIP 16 OCT–31 OCT · $289–290 C&FSAUDI ARABIA 661K TSAUDI ARABIA · GFSA · 661K T · ARRIVE 01 SEP–31 OCT · $268–273 C&F
AWARDED, WINDOW STILL OPEN2.13 MT5 AWARDSLOW END OF EACH REPORTED RANGE · SHIPMENT OR ARRIVAL NOT YET CLOSED
SHIPS IMPLIED20AT THE STATED LOTS2 AWARDS WITHOUT A STATED LOT, 1.04 MT · A HANDY LOADS 30K, A SUPRA 55K
NEEDS SUEZ, IF LOADED IN THE BLACK SEA1.09 MTOF WHICH 365K T NEEDS BAB EL-MANDEB TOO · THE BOARD CALLS SUEZ OPEN AND BAB EL-MANDEB RESTRICTED
WALKED AWAY · STILL ASKING535K TNO AWARDSAUDI ARABIA 8 SEP · OPEN: PAKISTAN 185K T
THE TAPE · C&F BY DATE, THE STATE BUYERS' PRICES ON ONE CHART6 PRICED LINES · C&F OR CFR AS TYPED, MIDPOINT WHERE A RANGE WAS REPORTED · HOLLOW IS A LOWEST BID, NOT YET AWARDED
$260$280$300$320$340$360AUGSEPOCTTODAYSAUDI ARABIA · 06 JUL · $270.50 C&F · 661K TSAUDI ARABIAALGERIA · 05 AUG · $289.50 C&F · 540–720K TALGERIA · 15 SEP · $320.00 C&F · 500–510K TALGERIAPAKISTAN · 16 SEP · $348.83 CFR KARACHI · 365K TPAKISTAN · 28 SEP · $339.36 CFR KARACHI · LOWEST BID, NOT AWARDED · 185K TPAKISTANJORDAN · 22 SEP · $332.00 C&F · 60K TJORDAN
ALGERIA · $289.50 05 AUG → $320.00 15 SEP · +$30.50/T IN 41 DAYS
PAKISTAN · $348.83 16 SEP → $339.36 28 SEP (LOWEST BID) · −$9.47/T IN 12 DAYS

STATE TENDERS AS REPORTED ON THE WIRES, TYPED BY THE DESK AND DATED ONE BY ONE · REUTERS VIA ARAB NEWS, ZAWYA AND BUSINESS RECORDER, UKRAGROCONSULT, SPA, THE NATION · TONNES AND PRICES ARE TRADERS’ ESTIMATES WHERE THE BUYER PUBLISHES NONE · THE GATE IS WHAT A BLACK SEA CARGO WOULD NEED, THE DESK’S OWN GROUPING

Every grain tender on record, with what each price implies for freight

The oddsHormuz and Red Sea prediction markets

What prediction markets expect next for Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the Gulf, from POLYMARKET · AS OF 28 SEPHormuz traffic back to normal by 31 Dec 24% · US announces end of the Iranian blockade by 31 Dec 60% · A commercial ship hit or seized in the Gulf today 31%
Hormuz traffic back to normal by 31 Dec?
24%YES
$13.4M TRADEDCLOSES 31 DEC
A commercial ship hit or seized in the Gulf today?
31%YES
$33K TRADEDCLOSES TODAY 2000Z
Bab el-Mandeb effectively closed by 31 Dec?
18%YES
$15.0M TRADEDCLOSES 31 DEC
Houthis seize an oil tanker by 31 Oct?
27%YES
— TRADEDCLOSES 31 OCT

The logGulf, Red Sea and Black Sea shipping news

The watchkeeper's log, newest first, when the next numbers land, and the 0600Z brief.28 SEP · TCP opens its 185,000 t wheat bids: 13 received, 12 responsive, Bunge lowest at $339.36 CFR Karachi and $340…
WATCHKEEPER'S LOG · WHAT HAPPENED, NEWEST FIRSTSTRAITS.LIVE EVENT FEED · 28 SEP
28 SEPTCP opens its 185,000 t wheat bids: 13 received, 12 responsive, Bunge lowest at $339.36 CFR Karachi and $340.36 Gwadar, Aston top at $354.83; the 16 Sep award was $348.83, so the C&F fell $9.47/t in twelve days; award pending, grievances to 1800 on 29 SepTCP EVALUATION REPORT, TCP.GOV.PK · DESK PIN
28 SEPKyiv sees no positive sign of a ceasefire covering grain or the Black Sea: every proposal from partners rejected by Moscow, no direct contact, every round of talks tried and none expected to work in the coming months, says agriculture minister Vysotskyi in BrusselsINTERVIEW VIA SINA FINANCE · DESK PIN
28 SEPUkraine asks its partners for stronger export support and an extraordinary FAO session: port strikes put more than 30 million tonnes of this season’s agricultural exports at risk and producer losses above $10bn, with storage, working capital and the 2027–28 plantings under pressureMINISTRY OF AGRARIAN POLICY, AS READ 28 SEP · DESK PIN
28 SEPRussia could restore up to 80% of its Black Sea and Azov grain terminal capacity quickly if the mutual strikes stop; politicians on both sides say a Grain Deal 2.0 is not on the agendaAS REPORTED, READ 28 SEP · DESK PIN
28 SEPUzbekistan took more than 71,000 t of Russian wheat in eight months, sixteen times a year ago, with a record 65,000 t in August: port disruption is pushing Russian exporters to rail and to Central Asia despite Kazakh transit tariffsSTAT.UZ, AS READ 28 SEP · DESK PIN
28 SEPIran finishes laying the 730 km Chabahar–Zahedan line, Afghanistan’s shortest route to the ocean and a port outside Hormuz; operations from early 2027AS REPORTED, READ 28 SEP · DESK PIN
21 SEPSix VLCCs load nearly 12 million barrels at Ras Tanura and Ju’aymah in one day, the busiest at the complex since before the war; four entered the Gulf in ballast 15–17 Sep, and 25 of 26 inbound ballast crude-tanker crossings 12–20 Sep showed no destination. Six dark events at Sohar, Fujairah, Basrah and Ras Tanura preceded the surgeMARINETRAFFIC BY KPLER, SENTINEL-2 IMAGERY · DESK PIN
21 SEPCaspian coaster rates keep climbing on Russian grain to Iran; the Azov market stays shut, with no exit into the Black SeaCOASTER FREIGHT INDEX · DESK PIN
TONIGHT'S WATCH · WHEN THE NEXT NUMBERS LANDUTC
TODAY'S "SHIP HIT IN THE GULF" CONTRACT CLOSES IN04:00:18Polymarket resolves each day at midnight Gulf time, 2000Z. Today prices 31%.
NEXT AIS READ29:56The light board refreshes every half hour. A new satellite pass over the lanes can move DARKCON between reads.
NEXT PORTWATCH PRINTTUE 06 OCTThe IMF publishes the strait counts weekly, about nine days behind. The Sunday row is always the quiet one.
NEXT COASTER FREIGHT INDEXMON 12 OCTThe index prints on Mondays; the GrainFlow workbook runs a week behind it. Week 38 flows, 14 to 20 Sep, are the next to type in.
THE 0600Z BRIEF · THIS PAGE ON ONE SHEET

The level, the gates and who needs them, the tape, the desk's read and its score, the wire, the coaster board, the grain afloat, the odds and the log — every line dated, the sheet stamped with the time it was made. Print it for the morning meeting, or copy it as text and paste it in the channel.

The log on its own page · Every 0600Z brief, by date · RSS